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The Direction of Causality between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Tanzania, An Empirical Analysis

机译:坦桑尼亚金融发展与经济增长因果关系的方向实证分析

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摘要

The main objective of this study was to examine causality relationships between financial development and economic growth in Tanzania. In time series context, recently econometric techniques were used; namely Augmented Dickey and Fuller test (ADF) for unit roots, Johansen test for Co-intergration test, Vector Error Correction Model, Granger causality test under VAR framework used to establish direction of causality, and Variance decomposition (VD) applied for validating strengths of findings outside the estimated sampling period. The overall empirical findings can be summarized as follows. Firstly, there is long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. Secondly, granger causality test suggests economic growth causes financial development in a short-run when broad money to nominal GDP and liquidity liabilities to nominal GDP used, however when credit to private sector to nominal GDP was used findings confirmed evidence of bidirectional causality, and in long run causality run only from financial development to economic growth even in outside the estimated sampling period. Thirdly, financial sector in Tanzania has been effective in promoting economic growth in a short run only. Lastly, capital accumulation channel via gross domestic investments to nominal GDP links financial development and economic growth in a short run, suggesting long-term financial infrastructures necessary for successful promoting investments for spurring economic growth are still remain weak in Tanzania. In view of feedback effect results, study recommend more efforts should be devoted to the deepening of financial sector by enhancing competition, improving business environment, investing on human resources and legal environment.
机译:这项研究的主要目的是研究坦桑尼亚金融发展与经济增长之间的因果关系。在时间序列方面,最近使用了计量经济学技术。分别是单位根的增强Dickey和Fuller检验(ADF),协整检验的Johansen检验,矢量误差校正模型,用于确定因果关系方向的VAR框架下的Granger因果关系检验和方差分解(VD)用于验证强度调查结果超出了估计的抽样期限。总体的经验发现可以总结如下。首先,金融发展与经济增长之间存在长期的关系。其次,格兰杰因果关系检验表明,使用广义货币对名义GDP的流动性和对名义GDP的流动性负债时,经济增长会在短期内导致金融发展,但是,当使用对私营部门对名义GDP的信贷时,发现证实了双向因果关系的证据。长期因果关系仅从金融发展到经济增长,甚至在估计的采样期之外。第三,坦桑尼亚的金融部门仅在短期内有效地促进了经济增长。最后,通过国内总投资到名义国内生产总值的资本积累渠道在短期内将金融发展与经济增长联系起来,这表明成功促进投资以刺激经济增长所必需的长期金融基础设施仍然薄弱。考虑到反馈效应的结果,研究建议应通过加强竞争,改善商业环境,对人力资源和法律环境进行投资来加大对金融业深化的投入。

著录项

  • 作者

    Hyera, Erasmus Bernald;

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  • 年度 2016
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 en
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